Andrea Tambalotti | William Chen

What's Up with the Phillips Curve?

Mon, 21 Jun 2021 00:00:00 +0000

U.S. inflation used to rise during economic booms, as businesses charged higher prices to cope with increases in wages and other costs. When the economy cooled and joblessness rose, inflation declined. This pattern changed around 1990. Since then, U.S. inflation has been remarkably stable, even though economic activity and unemployment have continued to fluctuate. For example, during the Great Recession unemployment reached 10 percent, but inflation barely dipped below 1 percent. More recently, even with unemployment as low as 3.5 percent, inflation remained stuck under 2 percent. What explains the emergence of this disconnect between inflation and unemployment? This is the question we address in “ What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?,” published recently in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

How to cite this post:

William Chen, Marco Del Negro, Michele Lenza, Giorgio Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti, “What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, September 18, 2020, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/09/whats-up-with-the-phillips-curve.html.

Disclaimer:

The views expressed in this post are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast — March 2021

Wed, 31 Mar 2021 00:00:00 +0000

As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

How to cite this post:

William Chen, Marco Del Negro, Shlok Goyal, Alissa Johnson, and Andrea Tambalotti, “The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2021,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, March 31, 2021, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2021/03/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecastmarch-2021.html.

Disclaimer:

The views expressed in this post are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast — December 2019

Fri, 20 Dec 2019 00:00:00 +0000

This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since September 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

How to cite this post:

William Chen, Marco Del Negro, Ethan Matlin, Reca Sarfati, and Andrea Tambalotti, “The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2019,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, December 20, 2019, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2019/12/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecastdecember-2019.html.

Disclaimer:

The views expressed in this post are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.